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Residents of the Big Apple will find out the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who governs and defends the country's most populous metropolis at a moment when Donald Trump has threatened to deploy armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has matched two distinctly opposing Democrats against one another. The election has turned into an increasingly bitter showdown, marked by accusations of racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have major implications for how the Democratic party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the young democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has brought global notice. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the support of wealthy contributors and corporations.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who defeated Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has run on a agenda of affordability and promised to freeze rent for about 2 million city residents, has outpaced Cuomo by significant margins in every poll taken in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

However, the former governor, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has trashed Mamdani's objectives as unachievable, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was widely condemned as bigoted after sharing an AI-generated ad that featured a series of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani freeing a group of criminals.

It's been a particularly ugly end to an election that could be critical to the direction that the Democratic party, floundering in its reaction to the former president's authoritarian grabs, takes in the near future.

National Implications

Should the progressive wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his campaign will be forced to reckon with a platform that has appealed to Americans' anger at economic disparity, inflation and the political elite. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and the House leader not to embrace at least some of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the fresh face has created an excitement within the Democratic ranks arguably not witnessed since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House in 2016.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been expected to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement national Democrats' existing approach of cautious, uninspiring opposition – a strategy that has angered grassroots members. A New York rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to remain in the political center – even as polls show the present version of the party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Voters in New York appear to favor the progressive agenda. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. The candidate's snappy videos on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for New York and his readiness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the metropolis has attracted an army of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

Yet, the former governor, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might stick, the independent has narrowed his focus on attacking Mamdani personally. He has called his rival, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and appeared on conservative media for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo claimed New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It reached a nadir last week, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack echoes much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to Washington DC and threatened to do the same to New York, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that is expected. A group of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to the Republican in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to get the independent elected, as other powerful voices have urged Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the his team, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his campaign for mayor in last year, few had heard of him, and in truth, barely anyone even paid attention.

Cuomo, by contrast, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who apparently held all the advantages. The classic political insider, he had married a Kennedy and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in 2011, 17 years after his father, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was elected to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – offer a more positive vision of the future than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Still, the candidate has encountered difficulties in recent days, after footage emerged suggesting him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the recording, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in recent years. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the nation is committing genocide in Gaza, indicated he was questioning joint training exercises between the city police and IDF.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, the candidate seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his response to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani responded to Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first ran for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, he said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must leave our faith.”

Speaking to the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd